Track record
VMTradeAlert signal track record
Every order flow signal is scored against its own stop and target, and the losers are counted too. These are live production results for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana signals, not a backtest.
How a signal is scored
A signal is a trade idea with an entry, a stop and a target. The score depends only on which level price touches first.
Entry
The price at the moment the signal fires.
Stop: 1 ATR
The stop sits one ATR (average true range, from 1-hour candles) from the entry. The distance from entry to stop is 1R.
Target: 4 ATR
The final target sits four ATR from the entry, which is 4R. The payoff is fixed at 1:4.
TP1, TP2, TP3
Three milestones on the way to the target, at 1R, 2R and 3R from the entry.
- We check closed 5-minute candles after the signal fires. The first level touched decides the result: target is a win, stop is a loss.
- If one candle touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts. This favors the loss, not the win.
- A signal that touches neither level within 72 hours is marked expired. Expired signals are left out of the win rate and net R, because they have no stop or target result.
- TP1, TP2 and TP3 counts are per level. A signal can reach TP1 and TP2 and still hit its stop, and it then counts as a loss.
Net R = (target hits x 4) minus (stop hits x 1). Average R = net R divided by decided signals.
What the numbers leave out. The score uses entry, stop and target prices only. It does not subtract trading fees, funding, spread or slippage, and it assumes you get filled at the entry and exit prices. Your own results will differ.
How to read win rate and net R
At a 1:4 payoff, one win pays for four losses. That changes what a good win rate looks like.
Break-even is about 20%
Before costs, 1 win in 5 signals breaks even at 1:4. With costs, you need a little more. A modest win rate is not a failure at this payoff.
A high win rate is not the goal
Net R shows whether wins outweigh losses. Win rate alone can hide it. Look at both numbers together, over a large number of signals.
Losing streaks happen
With a low win rate, several stops in a row are normal. Small samples mislead, so a short period tells you little.
Live numbers
This section loads the current score from our server when the page opens. It uses every scored Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana signal in the period shown. Nothing is filtered or cherry-picked.
Period: all time. Payoff 1:3.
| Level | Signals that reached it |
|---|---|
| TP1 (1R) | 107 |
| TP2 (2R) | 71 |
| TP3 (3R) | 51 |
| Target (1:3) | 71 |
| Coin | Decided | Wins | Losses | Win rate | Net R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 100 | 22 | 78 | 22% | -12R |
| Ethereum | 80 | 22 | 58 | 27.5% | +8R |
| Solana | 95 | 27 | 68 | 28.4% | +13R |
As of 2 Nov 2026, 17:08 UTC (when the site was last built; live numbers replace these when the page loads). Counts change as new signals fire and resolve.
Past results do not predict future results. Signals are information, not advice to buy or sell, and no result is guaranteed. Read the risk disclaimer.
Try the signals yourself
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